Phoenix and the Illusion of Time: The Quote Board - A Record of What They Said, and When They Said It

Arizona's climate crisis, documented in the words of the officials, scientists, and residents living it.

THE QUOTE BOARD - AFTER 7 STATE DEADLINE MISSED

PHOENIX AND THE ILLUSION OF TIME

A Record of What They Said — And When They Said It

This document began on February 14, 2026 — the day seven states missed their federal deadline to agree on Colorado River water allocations, and the crisis passed into the hands of a federal government that calls climate change a hoax. That was the moment it became clear that no negotiated solution was coming. What followed is documented here — in the words of the people who knew, the people who warned, and the people who chose silence.

Compiled by David Lawrence

Phoenix Resident, 26 Years | Colorado Native

Research and documentation developed in collaboration with Claude AI (Anthropic)

**PART ONE: THE WARNINGS**

What officials with direct knowledge said out loud

Gene Shawcroft

Utah Colorado River Commissioner

~February 13, 2026~

“Releasing water from upper dams could delay the problem by maybe a year or possibly two, but you haven’t eliminated the problem. The demand has been driven by use principally in the Lower Basin, and those demands can no longer be met.”

Context: Announcing the collapse of seven-state negotiations at the February 14 deadline.

Estevan Lopez

New Mexico Colorado River Commissioner

~February 17, 2026~

“The River is telling us the truth every year. We can either negotiate based on real conditions, including this year’s critically low hydrology in the Upper Basin, or we can keep repeating outdated assumptions until the system breaks.”

Context: Warning issued as seven-state negotiations collapsed at the February 14 federal deadline.

Tom Buschatzke

Arizona Director of Water Resources | Lead Negotiator

~February 25, 2026~

“None of those alternatives are very good for the state of Arizona. I’m not seeing how we’re going to break that stalemate.”

~March 2, 2026~

“One of those potential outcomes could be a time at which the Central Arizona Project(CAP) could be completely dry because of certain interpretations of what a junior priority might mean. And I think you could imagine that that would be quite an economic and political disaster for that outcome.”

Context: Arizona’s top water official warning that the state’s primary water supply could be completely severed under federal proposals — while simultaneously leading negotiations that had already missed two deadlines.

~May 5, 2026~

“It’s like you’re buying an insurance policy — get as much as you can afford, as much as you should get.”

Context: Responding at a press briefing when asked why the Lower Basin states were offering to conserve as much water as possible — framing the entire emergency proposal as a financial transaction against an uncertain future.

Tom Buschatzke

Arizona Director of Water Resources

~May 8, 2026~

“We have kind of a crisis situation that this past winter has created. We need to do everything we can, and that’s what our plan does, to find a short-term fix.”

Context: Announcing the Lower Basin temporary plan — Arizona’s lead negotiator publicly calling the situation a crisis for the first time in those explicit terms.

Brenda Burman

Central Arizona Project General Manager

~February 25, 2026~

“If any of those alternatives were implemented, it would be very, very difficult and perhaps devastating for Arizona.”

~March 9 2026~

(ESCALATED)

“It is a devastating hit to the state of Arizona. It appears they are trying to wipe us off the map.”

Context: The manager of Arizona’s primary water delivery system escalating her language over six weeks — from “devastating” to “wipe us off the map” — as federal cut proposals grew more severe.

Scott Anderson

Mayor, Gilbert, Arizona

~February 25, 2026~

“This is something that’s going to be somewhere between really, really bad and a disaster.”

Context: Warning about potential Colorado River cuts to Gilbert — a city that gets 41% of its water from CAP and approved a 125% cumulative water rate increase over three years.

Official Comments to Bureau of Reclamation

~March 2, 2026~

“All the alternatives proposed in the DEIS disproportionately harm Arizona and are unacceptable... the Basic Coordination alternative proposed in the DEIS that Reclamation claims could be imposed without Arizona’s consent all but severs much of Central and Southern Arizona from Colorado River supplies that have been relied upon for four decades.”

Context: CAP launched public ad campaigns warning residents of economic catastrophe — while simultaneously submitting formal legal objections to every federal proposal on the table.

Central Arizona Project

Official Statement

~March 9, 2026~

CAP warned the worst-case federal scenario could cost Arizona’s economy $2.7 trillion

and force cities to haul water “as an alternative to support continued services.”

Brad Udall

Senior Research Scientist, Colorado Water Center

~April 22, 2026~

“It’s unprecedented; it’s human-caused; it’s scary, frightening, awful.”

Context: Reviewing 2026 snowpack data — the worst levels of the entire 21st century, worse than 2002, 2012, 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2025.

Kathryn Sorensen

Director of Research, ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy

~April 28, 2026~

“No, people should not be worried that their taps are going to run dry. But a lot of the solutions to the Colorado River shortage are going to entail higher costs. If you want to have reliable tap water services over time, you have to pay the piper. And with Colorado River shortages here, that time has come.”

Context: Speaking as Phoenix City Council was briefed on the city’s expected move to Drought Stage 2 — Water Warning by end of 2026.

Jake Richardson

SRP Senior Hydrologist

~April 29, 2026~

“Right now, we’re about half full. If we had no more inflow, that’s still about a year and a half of water to meet demand.”

Context: Confirming SRP reservoir system status with Roosevelt Lake at 45% capacity — the system that supplies water to roughly 2.5 million Valley residents.

Jenny Dumas

Water Attorney, Jicarilla Apache Nation

~May 1, 2026~

“This is a short-term solution. It’s going to take time to recover these reservoirs before we can do this again. So while we can exhaust our reserves to avoid system collapse this year, it means reserves won’t be there next year.”

Context: Responding to the Flaming Gorge emergency releases — warning that buying time in 2026 eliminates the same option in 2027.

Kyle Roerink (Great Basin Water Network)

~May 3, 2026~

Quote 1

“If we have a similar winter next winter, it will be brutal. The actions water managers have to take will make today’s news look like a cakewalk.”

Context: Responding to the May 1 Lower Basin proposal — warning that 2026’s emergency measures are mild compared to what 2027 may require.

Quote 2

“If we had had a huge winter with huge snowpacks all throughout the basin, we probably wouldn’t be seeing this.”

Context: Acknowledging the historic drought conditions driving the crisis.

Kyle Roerink (Great Basin Water Network)

~May 3, 2026~

“This conflict, this time we’re in, is something that truly will be in history books. This is a moment, a flashpoint.”

Context: Responding to the May 1 Lower Basin states’ emergency proposal to stabilize Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

Eric Balken (Glen Canyon Institute)

~May 3, 2026~

“Lake Powell will be falling to the lowest point since it began filling in the 1960s. Without intervention it would fall below minimum power pool later this year.”

Context: Warning about imminent hydropower failure at Glen Canyon Dam without emergency federal intervention.

Shawn Kreuzwiesner

Utilities Director, Town of Cave Creek

~May 2026~

“Not knowing what the cuts will be is very stressful, because we’ve been trying to plan for 20%, 25% cuts, and now all of a sudden, this number of 50-plus percent came up. Well, that’s a game changer for everybody.”

Context: Cave Creek gets 95% of its water from the Colorado River and faces cuts of up to 60% under federal proposals.

Anne Castle

Senior Fellow, University of Colorado Law School Getches-Wilkinson Center

Former Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, Obama Administration

Former Upper Colorado River Commission, Biden Administration

~May 14, 2026~

“This year, there’s going to be even less water available.”

“That’s just a one-time fix. It helps us this year, but it doesn’t do anything to solve the gap between supply and demand. We haven’t solved the gap.”

“The gap we have to fill is 3 to 4 million acre-feet, and I want to suggest that that can only happen if there are mandatory, enforceable reductions in every state. It’s just not possible, either mathematically or politically, to solve that problem without all seven states.”

“It’s a step in the right direction, no doubt about it, but it’s not enough. And the river will make us use less water eventually.”

“I don’t know that conservation in the ag sector is going to be sufficient. I think very unfortunately, there are ag lands that are going to go out of production.”

Context: Speaking on a UCLA Luskin Center panel — a former Obama administration water official and Biden-era river commissioner calling current responses wholly inadequate and warning the math requires mandatory cuts in all seven states simultaneously.

Colorado River Basin Coalition

70+ organizations, six states, multiple tribal nations

~May 13, 2026~

“The West cannot conserve its way out of this challenge alone.”

“Without this bridge, the basin risks remaining in a repeated cycle of reactive, emergency-driven operations that are more disruptive, less effective and more costly.”

Context: Coalition letter to Congress requesting $2 billion in emergency funding — acknowledging conservation alone cannot solve the structural deficit between supply and demand.

Rhett Larson

Professor of Water Law, Arizona State University

~May 27, 2026~

“We are not running out of water in Central Arizona, but we are running out of cheap water.”

Context: Speaking at a Scottsdale town hall on water challenges as Colorado River water-sharing agreements expire at the end of 2026. Scottsdale relies on Colorado River water for just over 70% of its supply. The city council voted the previous week to raise water rates 4.5%.

Tom Buschatzke Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR)

~ Mid-May 2026~

“We’re going to go to 1,035. There’s no question that’s going to happen.”

Context: Arizona’s own water director stating as certainty that Lake Mead will drop to 1,035 feet — the threshold at which 12 of Hoover Dam’s 17 turbines shut down and Arizona loses a significant portion of its cheapest power source. Not a projection. Not a possibility. A certainty — in his own words.

Emily Brandt

Energy Resource Manager, Heber Light & Power

~May 2026~

“The ongoing loss of hydropower due to Lake Powell’s decline has brought challenges as the population grows.”

Context: Describing five consecutive years of electricity rate hikes at her Utah utility — directly caused by declining Lake Powell hydropower output. The cool mix flow decision could cost ratepayers an additional $25 million in replacement electricity costs in 2026 alone.

Felicia Marcus Former Chair, California State Water Resources Control Board

~Q2 2026~

“It’s a collective failure of will that I think history will judge very, very harshly. There will be enough blame to go around.”

Context: Speaking about the failure of seven Colorado River states to reach a post-2026 framework agreement by the February deadline, despite two years of negotiations. Marcus has worked on Western water issues for decades. She believes things might have gone differently if the federal government had played a stronger role.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum U.S. Department of the Interior

~Q2 2026~

“Nobody will be happy.”

Context: Warning the states about what the Bureau of Reclamation’s federally imposed post-2026 guidelines will look like, after seven states failed to agree on their own framework. Expected to be announced summer 2026.

Kathryn Sorensen Research Director, ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy

~Q2 2026~

Quote 1

“Mother Nature is driving this train.”

Context: Describing the fundamental reality behind the Colorado River crisis — that the water situation is driven by physical and climate forces no negotiation framework can override. Said in the context of failed seven-state negotiations and the Bureau of Reclamation’s impending federal intervention.

Quote 2

“No elected official wants to be the one who decides who gets water and who doesn’t, and that fact is independent of whether it’s a Republican or Democratic administration.”

Context: Explaining why the tragedy of the commons plays out in water politics regardless of party — the political cost of making hard decisions about water allocation is too high for any elected official to absorb voluntarily.

Brad Udall Senior Scientist, Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Center

~ Q2 2026~

Quote 1

“That’s enormous and more than disturbing.”

Context: Noting that Colorado River basin streamflow has dropped nearly 35% since 2020 — on top of a 20% decrease over the previous century documented by USGS. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are at less than a third of their capacity.

Quote 2

“Drought is a temporary phenomenon, and what we have here is not a temporary issue. We will not return to pre-drought times — our future is, in fact, warmer and drier.”

Context: Explaining the concept of “aridification” — the permanent, structural drying of the Colorado River Basin driven by climate change. Not a drought that ends. A new baseline.

Quote 3

“Climate change has changed our water supplies in such a fundamental way that an historic 100-year-old agreement is no longer even remotely possible to implement. We need to completely rethink how we operate human society around a declining source of water.”

Context: The closing quote of the Governing magazine feature on Colorado River negotiations. A Colorado State University senior water scientist saying plainly that the 1922 Colorado River Compact — the foundational legal document governing water in the American West — is no longer implementable given current climate reality.

Tom Buschatzke Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources

~Q2 2026~

“Those who benefit from the largesse of the river should contribute to the protection of the river. An attitude of shared sacrifice, that ethic, is what needs to be the basis for multistate collaborative outcomes.”

Context: Arizona’s water director calling for shared sacrifice across all seven Colorado River states — a direct reference to the Upper Basin states’ refusal to commit to meaningful cuts while Lower Basin states have already absorbed mandatory reductions every year since 2020.

Peter Abraham

Water Director, Oro Valley

~June 3, 2026~

“Nothing official has come down — but even though we’re expecting a 20% reduction in our CAP water, we’re still in a great position from a water resource perspective.”

Context: Telling the Oro Valley Town Council the utility had been informally told to prepare for a 20% CAP cut starting January 1, 2027 — while noting groundwater well recovery declined from 7 wells to 5 wells in a single year.

Tom Cameron Commissioner, Bureau of Reclamation

~June 5, 2026~

“As the hydrology has deteriorated, it makes it rougher for people to compromise.”

Context: Speaking to Fox 13 News as the Bureau of Reclamation proposed a two-year rolling operating plan for the Colorado River after seven states failed to reach a permanent post-2026 framework agreement.

Gene Shawcroft Colorado River Commissioner, Utah

~June 5, 2026~

“We don’t have anything to put on the table. If we had something to put on the table, which I wish we did, that would not put us in the position where we felt we had to go along.”

Context: Utah’s own Colorado River Commissioner admitting to Fox 13 News that Utah has no meaningful conservation contribution to offer in post-2026 negotiations. Said as the Bureau of Reclamation proposed a two-year rolling operating plan — meaning no permanent solution — while current agreements expire in October 2026.

Becky Mitchell Colorado River Commissioner, Colorado

~June 5, 2026~

“Somewhat of a renegotiation every two years? That’s going to be difficult.”

Context: Colorado’s river commissioner responding skeptically to the Bureau of Reclamation’s proposed two-year rolling operating plan for post-2026 Colorado River management.

Quote 2

“There is less coming into the system than folks feel like they’re entitled to. In the Upper Basin we have to work with what Mother Nature provides. We work with that in real

time. We are on the front lines of climate change.”

Context: Colorado’s river commissioner acknowledging the physical reality of a shrinking Colorado River during post-2026 framework negotiations.

JB Hamby Colorado River Commissioner, California

~June 5, 2026~

“The problem is, we can’t have one basin or set of states do all of the reductions and others not participate at all.”

Context: California’s river commissioner calling for shared sacrifice across all seven Colorado River basin states — as Utah’s commissioner simultaneously admitted having nothing to contribute.

Scott Cameron Bureau of Reclamation Official

~June 5, 2026~

“I hate to give you all bad news, but there isn’t a lot of money left.”

Context: Explicitly warning Lower Basin states that the federal funds used to pay water users for voluntary cuts are virtually exhausted.

Andy Mueller General Manager, Colorado River Water Conservation District

~June 6, 2026~

“Terrible, dangerous idea.”

Context: Slamming the federal proposal forcing river management into two-year renegotiation cycles that intentionally crash into congressional and presidential election cycles — hyper-politicizing survival infrastructure.

Sarah Porter Director, ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy

~June 7, 2026~

“I don’t think that they understand how big the risk is right now. We’re really on the edge of a very, very deep, disruptive cut in Colorado River supplies. We have to plan for that possibility.”

Context: Warning on 12News Sunday Square Off that Scottsdale — which gets 70% of its water from the Colorado River — is the most exposed and least prepared Valley city for deep cuts. Porter said other cities like Phoenix are preparing. Scottsdale is not.

Quote 2

“There will be a huge loss of confidence in the region’s ability to meet water demand. For people who live here, this is an existential fear that Scottsdale will be feeding into. For people beyond this region, it will be a loss of investor confidence, a loss of interest in coming to Arizona, in investing in the economy here.”

Context: Describing the regional economic fallout of a dramatic disruption to Scottsdale water service.

Chuck Cullom Executive Director, Upper Colorado River Commission

~June 9, 2026~

“We have depleted the storage in those reservoirs to the brink of being empty. We are overspending our bank account and the bank account is almost empty. So, legal theories, everyone has one. Math is indisputable.”

Context: Speaking to Cronkite News as seven states remained deadlocked with the October 2026 deadline approaching and Arizona facing up to 77% cuts to its CAP supply under the federal Basic Coordination Alternative.

Sarah Pitt Water Researcher

~June 9, 2026~

“With the states poised to be fighting each other, they don’t really have the time to be thinking about environmental concerns.”
Context: Speaking to Cronkite News on the seven-state deadlock as the Bureau of Reclamation prepares to release its updated plan in mid-July, final guidelines in August.

Brad Udall Senior Scientist, Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Center ~June 2026 ~

“Maybe this is the first worldwide climate-change crisis that’s going to force really fundamental policy-level decisions to be made.”

Context: Speaking to The Week as Lake Mead and Lake Powell sit roughly 75% below peak volumes and studies project the river delivering 10-45% less water by 2050.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah)

Chair, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee

~June 10, 2026~

“States that choose to sue their fellow basin states over Colorado River operations should not expect Congress to reward that decision with additional federal funding. Federal taxpayers should not be asked to subsidize litigation among the states.”

Context: Threatening to block the remaining $354 million in IRA conservation funding — which expires September 2026 — if Lower Basin states pursue litigation against Upper Basin states over the river’s future. Negotiators on both sides have confirmed they are actively preparing for litigation.

Gene Shawcroft

Utah Colorado River Commissioner

~June 12, 2026~

“The river will not wait for politics to catch up. The hydrology demands that we act collectively and immediately to keep the Colorado River system from failing.”

Context: Speaking as seven states failed to finalize post-2026 operating guidelines. Utah simultaneously offered 23,000 acre-feet of conservation — roughly 1.3% of the monthly inflow deficit Lake Powell just recorded.

Amy Haas

Executive Director, Colorado River Authority of Utah

~June 12, 2026~

“Upstream releases will not save the system.”

Context: Cautioning that emergency releases from Flaming Gorge — already being drained to prop up Lake Powell — cannot be treated as an ongoing annual backstop for the system’s structural deficit.

Jay Famiglietti

Groundwater Scientist, Arizona State University

~June 15, 2026~

“We have to be exceptionally careful because it took tens of thousands of years to accumulate, we’re burning through it on a century time scale. There is essentially no hope of high-magnitude replenishment.”

Context: Speaking to WBUR’s Here & Now as Colorado River cuts increase pressure to pump groundwater across the Southwest. Only 18% of Arizona has groundwater protections. Most losses in Arizona per satellite gravity data.

Jay Famiglietti
Groundwater Scientist, Arizona State University
~June 15, 2026~

“We’re going to come under a lot of pressure as these Colorado River allocations get cut back. We will have difficult decisions on the horizon.”
Context: Same interview — warning that Colorado River cuts will drive emergency groundwater pumping into already-depleted aquifers with no meaningful recharge capacity.

Kevin Thompson

Commissioner, Arizona Corporation Commission

~June 16, 2026~

“What took our utilities 100+ years to build, we need to double that within the next four to five years to keep up with demand. How do you do that and not put the cost onto the existing customers?”

Context: Speaking at an Axios event in Phoenix — a powerful elected utility regulator describing the impossible math of AI data center growth and who pays for it.

Kevin Thompson
Commissioner, Arizona Corporation Commission
~June 16, 2026~
“They want to make sure their air conditioning is still running when it’s 120 degrees outside. But they want it to be affordable as well.”
Context: Describing Arizona residents’ core concern about data center growth — that it makes power both more expensive AND less reliable at the exact moment they need it most.

Southern Nevada Water Authority
Official Statement
~June 2026~
"While Reclamation has acknowledged the engineering feasibility exists to operate at these levels, the bypass tubes were not envisioned to be the sole release mechanism. Gambling on how much we can safely release while the reservoir is near empty seems less than prudent."
Context: Responding to BOR confirmation that Glen Canyon Dam's backup river outlet works — the only water release mechanism below 3,490 feet elevation — may be damaged. Lake Powell currently 37 feet above that threshold and dropping approximately one foot every five to seven days.

Brenda Burman
Former Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner / Now Central Arizona Project
~June 2026~
"They have some unknown issues about how these river outlet works would perform. That's very difficult, new information to hear."
Context: Testifying about the discovered potential damage to Glen Canyon Dam's backup release tubes — the infrastructure that would become the sole mechanism for delivering water from Lake Powell to Lake Mead if the reservoir drops another 37 feet.

Brandon Gebhart
State Engineer, Wyoming / Wyoming Representative, Upper Colorado River Commission
~June 23, 2026~
“As I’ve been saying for years, this is a problem that needs to be settled by hydrology. This is one of the worst, if not the worst, hydrologic year on record.”
Context: Speaking at Upper Colorado River Commission meeting in Denver. All of Wyoming essentially in a state of drought. Green River Basin ranchers facing cattle herd cuts due to lack of forage. Flaming Gorge Reservoir facing 1 million acre-foot drawdown to prop up Lake Powell.

---

Beck Mitchell
Colorado Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission
~June 23, 2026~
“It is dire; the pain is felt in every corner of every state in the Upper Basin. In a year like this year, they’re impacted in ways that we can’t imagine sitting in a room in Denver, trying to keep cattle alive, trying to keep crops alive, trying to make it through one more day.”
Context: Describing conditions facing Upper Basin farmers and ranchers at the June 23 commission meeting. Aerial photos shown at the meeting revealed stark contrast between green agricultural land in 2024 and brown dried land in 2026.

---

Beck Mitchell
Colorado Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission
~June 23, 2026~
“When we consistently release more than what is coming into our reservoirs, we drain the system.”
Context: Calling for long-term water conservation management of Colorado River dams and infrastructure rather than continued reactive releases to meet downstream demands.

---

Gene Shawcroft
Utah Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission
~June 23, 2026~
“There’s likely to be little to no carryover storage this year.”
Context: Warning that water shortages will likely be even worse in 2027 without extraordinary winter precipitation. Utah small towns have already run out of water and are hauling it in.

---

Gene Shawcroft
Utah Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission
~June 23, 2026~
“Unless we have a Snowmaggedon runoff.”
Context: Describing the only scenario under which 2027 water conditions would improve — an extraordinary winter precipitation event. Shawcroft is the same commissioner who said on June 5th that Utah had “nothing to put on the table,” then offered 23,000 acre-feet seven days later — an amount covering less than 2% of the annual system deficit.

Tom Buschatzke
Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources
~June 25, 2026~

“When we looked at desalination in Mexico, you were talking like $3,000 an acre-foot. Their profit margin isn’t big enough, unless somebody subsidizes the cost.”
“It will be more expensive than the water that has been delivered from the Colorado River in the past. There’s no doubt that it will.”
Context: Discussing the Carlsbad Desalination MOU framework with Cronkite News. Arizona currently pays $365/acre-foot for CAP water. Desalinated water costs $3,500/acre-foot at current Carlsbad rates — nearly 10x more expensive. Maximum available volume: 100,000 acre-feet — enough to supply Phoenix for approximately 3 months.

Sarah Porter
Director, ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy
~June 25, 2026~
“It’s a huge hurdle to get Met and the other cities to agree to let San Diego County Water Authority do this deal when potentially that water could benefit them.”
Context: Expressing skepticism that the Carlsbad desalination swap deal will close — noting California’s Metropolitan Water District and other cities may block San Diego from selling water to Arizona when they could use it themselves.

Terry Goddard
Board President, Central Arizona Water Conservation District
~June 24, 2026~
"It's a pleasure to be here in a way, although I don't have much good news. It's more of a reality check."
"When we look at the tree ring studies and hydrologic studies back as far as we can go, the last one of similar consequence was more than 1,000 years ago. It's a serious problem."
"This is a new reality, and we're having a little trouble adjusting to it."
Context: Briefing Buckeye City Council on Colorado River conditions. Described ongoing "millennial drought" that began in 2000 — with comparable drought conditions last seen over 1,000 years ago per historical records. Arizona receives slightly more than one-third of its water from the Colorado River.

Peter Abraham
Water Utility Director, Oro Valley
~June 24, 2026~
"We are in a state of crisis. We need to act now so we're not in a state of emergency in the future. But as far as our residents — now and for decades to come — when they turn on the tap, the water will be there."
"What I would expect, where they will notice a difference, is every year I expect water resource costs to go up three to five percent every year just because there's less of it."
Context: Briefing residents after Oro Valley was informally told to prepare for a 20% CAP cut starting January 2027. Water will be available but costs will rise 3-5% annually indefinitely — driven by basic supply and demand as Colorado River shrinks.

Tom Buschatzke
Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources
~June 29, 2026~
“The negotiations among the seven basin states have not been fruitful and I would say largely because the Upper Basin has not been willing to put reductions of use on the table.”
“Totally unacceptable to the state of Arizona.”
Context: Describing deadlocked Colorado River negotiations with the federal plan expected end of July or early August — a deadline already pushed back several times. Arizona faces cuts of up to 77% under the federal Basic Coordination Alternative.

Robert Morris
Mayor, Cave Creek, Arizona
~June 29, 2026~
“We are a desert state on the Central Arizona Project system, and we have got to start living like we live in the desert.”
“I expect if the cut is large enough that the state can’t absorb it, it’s going to be in court.”

Context: Cave Creek draws 90% of its water from the Colorado River — the highest dependency of any named community in this report. Rate increases expected; legal action possible if federal cuts are too severe.

Heather Tanana
Law Professor, University of Utah / Citizen of the Navajo Nation
~June 29, 2026~
“I don’t think they have a valid claim. This is a sovereign government who has been prevented from accessing a right that has been recognized since 1908.”
Context: On the four Upper Basin states — Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico — blocking the largest tribal water settlement in US history over Navajo water-leasing provisions.

John Berggren
Regional Policy Manager, Western Resource Advocates
~June 30, 2026~

“It’s a little trick, it’s a little confusing, a little counter intuitive.”
“This tool is not a silver bullet, and it’s not the only tool.”
Context: Describing the “operationally neutral conservation pool” concept on KJZZ — a paper accounting mechanism that moves existing conserved water between Lake Mead and Lake Powell without triggering operational shortage rules. No new water enters the system.

Max Wilson
Water Resources Manager, City of Phoenix
~June 29, 2026~
“Phoenix uses almost the exact same amount of water today as we did in the late 1990s — despite adding hundreds of thousands of residents.”
Context: Describing Phoenix’s water efficiency gains as the city prepares for Colorado River cuts. Phoenix draws 40% of its water from the Colorado River.

Sarah Porter

Director, Kyl Center for Water Policy, ASU
~July 2, 2026~
“It really has potential in the future to change the way cities in the Phoenix to Tucson area are managing water. So you know time will tell, but it’s one of those necessity is the mother of invention kind of moments.”
Context: On Phoenix’s 9-0 vote to join the Secure Water Arizona Program (SWAP) — a formal city-to-city water sharing and emergency pool framework, created as deeper Colorado River cuts loom.

Derek McEachern
General Manager, Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District (CAIDD)
~July 2, 2026~
“Arizona agriculture needs new supplies, not just deeper cuts to existing supplies. The Mojave Groundwater Bank gives CAIDD a path to secure firm, drought-resilient water that can help protect farms, families and the rural economy in Pinal County.”
Context: Announcing the first-ever MOU between an Arizona water district and Cadiz Inc.’s Mojave Groundwater Bank — up to 10,000 acre-feet per year of California desert groundwater at $850/acre-foot plus conveyance costs, versus roughly $365/acre-foot for CAP water. CAP’s agricultural allocation has been cut to zero two years running.

Arif Gasilov
Partner, Natural Resources & Built Environment Practice, Gasilov Group
~July 3, 2026~
“Heatwaves are demonstrating that the current siting and cooling model was designed for average conditions, and average conditions are disappearing with each passing day.”
Context: Speaking to Al Jazeera as a nationwide heat dome pushed grid demand toward records while AI data centers — which need maximum power and cooling water precisely when supplies are tightest — continued expanding. PJM, the nation’s largest grid operator, asked federal authorities for power to force data centers onto backup generators during emergencies.

Brad Udall
Senior Water and Climate Research Scientist, Colorado Water Center
~July 4, 2026~
“The reality here is we have less water. We can’t kick the can down the road anymore. These reservoirs are levels such that that’s just not possible. We’ve spent down this bank account as shown by the reservoir levels over the last 27 years, and we’re close to being broke here.”
“One-hundred plus years of water law policy treaties, congressional legislation, all kinds of agreements basically need to get thrown out and replaced with something else. I think this might be the first time worldwide where a water-related issue is causing this much of an upset.”
Context: Speaking to Straight Arrow News as Lake Powell and Lake Mead sit roughly a quarter full and approach dead pool. Udall also offered the optimistic counterweight — “It’s going to be hard, awkward, maybe ugly a few times, but because we need a quick solution, because it’s a critical resource, it will get solved.”

John Tracy
Professor of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University
~July 4, 2026~
“By the end of the summer, they’re going to be dangerously close to a dead pool, and that’s where everybody concerned is starting to sweat a little about that now.”
“No one wants to blink. If you are tagged with giving away Colorado’s water to somebody else, especially California, you’re dead. Your political career is over — and all the states are like this.”
Context: On both major reservoirs approaching dead pool simultaneously, and on why seven-state negotiations keep failing: the politics punish any negotiator who concedes anything.

Anne Castle
Senior Fellow, Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Boulder
~July 4, 2026~
“Those supplies are getting so depleted that we can’t count on being able to offset the gap between supply and demand with reservoir water anymore. We have to reduce uses in order to balance the system.”
Context: Forty million people rely on the Colorado River. The stored-water cushion that let the Southwest live beyond the river’s actual flow for decades is nearly spent.

David Wegner
Water and Climate Scientist / Co-founder, Glen Canyon Institute (former Dept. of Interior, 20+ years)
~July 6, 2026~
“It’s physical waves of energy that are attacking the concrete.”
Context: Describing cavitation — the imploding-bubble phenomenon threatening Glen Canyon Dam’s turbines and bypass tubes as Lake Powell approaches historic lows. Wegner witnessed the 1983 cavitation event that carved a 32-foot-deep pit in the dam’s spillway. He keeps a footlong chunk of that failed spillway concrete on his desk.

Eric Balken
Executive Director, Glen Canyon Institute
~July 6, 2026~
“This whole system is now being hamstrung by this infrastructure problem at Glen Canyon Dam.”
Context: On the dam’s inability to safely pass water at low reservoir levels — a concern once considered fringe, now echoed by the Lower Basin states themselves.

Zanna Stutts
Program Director, Glen Canyon Institute
~July 6, 2026~
“This is reservoir triage that we’re working with right now, instead of thinking about long-term strategies to work with the actual amount of water that the river can provide.”
“We have the two largest reservoirs in the country, and we can’t fill either one.”
Context: Reviving the proposal to drain Lake Powell and consolidate storage in Lake Mead as both reservoirs sit near 24% full. Stutts calls the Bureau of Reclamation’s emergency releases a one-year Band-Aid that “kicks the can down the road.”

Warren Tenney
Executive Director, Arizona Municipal Water Users Association
~July 6, 2026~
“There should be no question about this. This is the purpose of why the water was stored, so why is it even being questioned?”
Context: On the Arizona Water Banking Authority’s reluctance to tell Phoenix-area cities how much of their banked Colorado River water they can access as federal cuts loom. AMWUA represents 10 Valley cities accounting for more than half the state’s population.

Cynthia Campbell
Former Water Resources Management Advisor, City of Phoenix
~July 6, 2026~
“This all plays into a real frustration on the part of the cities who are trying to be diligent and trying to plan for eventualities — because they have real customers to serve, and they just don’t feel like they’re getting the level of cooperation that they would like to get from the Bank.”
Context: Cities began pressing the Arizona Water Banking Authority for clarity on their stored water as far back as 2017-2018 and still don’t know how much they’ll receive or how it will be extracted.

Greg Caton
City Manager, Scottsdale
~June 23, 2026~
“There is significant infrastructure that is needed in order to convey that water right to get it to Scottsdale... it’s the infrastructure for the other water right in conjunction with this that really brings it to our customers here in Scottsdale.”
Context: On Scottsdale’s $8.25 million storage-credit purchase and the larger 24-year, ~$30 million plan to pipe Harquahala Valley groundwater 60 miles into the CAP canal. Two-thirds of Scottsdale’s supply is Colorado River water facing cuts; the city manager conceded the standalone 15,000 acre-feet was not “a game changer” by itself.

Kathy Jacobs
Former Director, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona
~July 7, 2026~
“It’s more than 95% of the water that comes down as snow or rain is lost statewide. But there are actually basins in the state where evaporation exceeds the amount of water that actually falls as rain or snow — which is only possible if water is being pulled up out of the aquifer or the soil, which is in fact happening.”
Context: On findings from the Arizona Tri-University Recharge and Water Reliability Project (ATUR). Jacobs noted the problem “is going to get worse because of climate change,” as rising air temperature pulls more water from plants and soil.

Shivaji Deshmukh
General Manager, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California
~July 14, 2026~
“But while these agreements provide important near-term support, lasting progress will require long-term solutions. If we all commit to reducing our use, we can avoid deeper cuts and create lasting change that will benefit future generations who rely on the Colorado River Basin.”
Context: On MWD’s agreement to leave up to 200,000 acre-feet in Lake Mead in exchange for up to $65 million in federal payments. Deshmukh emphasized the deals are temporary and that lasting solutions require consensus among the seven basin states — consensus that has not materialized as current guidelines expire at the end of 2026.

C.C. Wei
Chairman, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
~July 16, 2026~
“We believe this investment will help to further foster the development of the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem, strengthen the supply chain, and support an increasing number of high-tech, high-paying jobs in the United States.”
Context: Announcing an additional $100 billion for Arizona at TSMC’s second-quarter earnings conference, bringing the company’s total planned Arizona commitment to $265 billion. Wei said TSMC would move “as fast as possible” but declined to give a timeline, noting progress would depend on market conditions and customer demand.

Kate Gallego
Mayor, Phoenix
~July 16, 2026~
“TSMC will invest an additional $100 billion right here in Phoenix, bringing its total investment to $265 billion. It’s the largest deal in U.S. history and cements our city as the heart of America’s technology manufacturing economy.”
Context: Celebrating TSMC’s expanded Arizona commitment — announced the same month the federal government is expected to impose Colorado River cuts of up to 77% on Arizona’s CAP allocation.

Eric Braun
Commissioner, Arizona Water Banking Authority
~July 7, 2026~
“The water bank is not a three-year water bank. It’s forever.”
Context: Arguing at a July 7 AWBA meeting that distributing large portions of banked water now “would not leave anything for future generations.” He was overruled; on July 23 the Water Bank committed to fully firm cities’ losses under a one-year policy.

Terri Sue Rossi
Vice President of Water Resources, Arizona Water Company (former ~7-year AWBA staffer)
~July 7, 2026~
“Never a requirement... judiciously over time.”
Context: Contending there was never a requirement for the Water Bank to distribute its stored water “in one fell swoop,” and that access was meant to be doled out judiciously over time. Her position lost. (Note: these are the two reliably reported fragments, run as-is rather than stitched into one sentence.)

John Berggren
Regional Policy Manager, Western Resource Advocates
~July 22, 2026~
“It’s not the silver bullet. It’s not the holistic, robust set of guidelines that puts the Colorado River Basin on a sustainable path or anything like that. But it’s taking a good step in the right direction — so it is a big deal in that sense.”
“I’m glad reclamation is doing something. I’ll be curious to see what the first two years of operations are, but the general framework for that 10-year record of decision, and the range of actions they could take are generally pretty good.”
Context: On the Bureau of Reclamation’s expected Colorado River plan, days before the federal cut figures were reported. Berggren — who earlier called the conservation-pool concept “a little trick” — frames even the favorable outcome as a first step, not a solution. The Arizona Department of Water Resources declined to comment until the plan was formally released.

Cindy Saverino
Senior Vice President of Planning and Program Development, Area Agency on Aging, Region One (Maricopa County)
~July 24, 2026~
"We were surprised by that — about how much the water bills were. You know, we've never seen water bills that high for our clients."
Context: On a rising number of older adults on fixed incomes calling the agency for financial help with utilities this summer. In prior years the summer strain was rent and air-conditioning costs; in 2026 it was water bills, at levels the agency says it had never seen. Many callers were already months behind, and the agency received 700 calls in a single month for help with rent, utilities, and other expenses.

Max Wilson
Water Resources Management Advisor, City of Phoenix
~July 28, 2026~
“I struggle to find many pros. We’re looking at a 10-year period of essentially forever negotiations where the valley and southern Arizona will be at immense risk of losing … access to a significant water supply that we have grown on and we depend on.”
Context: On the federal government’s incoming 10-year Colorado River management plan, which renegotiates cuts every two years. Wilson — a City of Phoenix water official — was reacting to early glimpses of the plan ahead of its formal release, expected the week of July 27 with a binding Record of Decision.

Max Wilson
Water Resources Management Advisor, City of Phoenix
~July 28, 2026~
“I don’t think that ultimately folks have come to terms with the fact that this is a water supply that Arizona needs to be able to thrive.”
Context: Warning that by the end of 2026, Phoenix could move from asking residents to voluntarily conserve water to asking them to actively cut back. Wilson noted the city has spent years building pipelines and wells to replace Colorado River water, but called it “a lot of water to replace.”

Brad Udall
Senior Water and Climate Research Scientist, Colorado Water Center, Colorado State University
~July 28, 2026~
“That’s a stunning drop. There’s nothing like it in the historical record.”
Context: On the Colorado River’s flow since 2020 averaging about 10.2 million acre-feet per year — a 33% decline from the 20th-century average, in records dating to 1906. Over the longer 27-year span, flows are down about 20%; the sharper post-2020 figure shows the decline is accelerating.

Katie Hobbs
Governor of Arizona
~July 31, 2026~
“Arizona provides the agricultural produce, critical minerals, weapons defense systems and cutting-edge semiconductors that feed America, protect America and fuel America’s high-tech economy. No other state in the Colorado River basin can say the same.”
Context: From the Governor’s official statement on the federal FEIS, arguing federally imposed cuts to Arizona’s water “will put every American at risk” as the nation works to “compete with China in the AI race, onshore critical supply chains, feed the country, and rebuild our depleted missile stockpile.” The statement frames Arizona’s strategic industrial role as the reason its water must be protected.

Teresa Martinez
Arizona State Representative (R-Casa Grande)
~July 31, 2026~
“Pinal County farmers already lost their Colorado River water. That happened years ago. They took the hit without a bailout, without fanfare, and without much sympathy from anybody. So when Washington tells Arizona to cut more, I want straight answers. Who is being asked to cut?”
Context: Responding to the federal FEIS. Martinez’s question points to the priority structure within Arizona — agriculture, cut first and already at zero in Pinal County, versus who absorbs the next round of reductions.

Arizona Department of Water Resources
Official statement
~July 31, 2026~
“Such reductions would devastate Arizona’s water users and its economy.”
Context: Calling the Bureau of Reclamation’s framework “unacceptable” and noting it required no mandatory cuts of the four Upper Basin states. ADWR emphasized the guidelines are not final until Reclamation issues a Record of Decision following an expedited public comment period, and said it hopes the coming guidelines follow the May 1 Lower Basin Proposal — 1.25 million acre-feet in annual shared reductions plus 700,000 acre-feet of system conservation.

Katie Hobbs
Governor of Arizona
~July 22, 2026~
“Across the state, we’re delivering the family-sustaining jobs and economic growth that are moving Arizona forward.”
Context: Celebrating the Arizona Commerce Authority’s report that Fiscal Year 2026 was the most successful economic-development year in state history — $109 billion in committed investment and 26,225 new jobs, both records. Nine days later, the same governor’s office would call federal cuts to the state’s water supply “unacceptable” and “devastating.”

JB Hamby
Chair, Colorado River Board of California / California’s lead negotiator
~July 31, 2026~
“This is an important milestone, but it is not the finish line.”
Context: On the FEIS release, noting operating plans will be developed in two-year increments and that the next step is the federal government’s 2027-2028 operating plan.

Sarah Porter
Director, Kyl Center for Water Policy, Arizona State University
~July 31, 2026~
“To me, all we’ve got is a decision framework. It’s not a proposal. It’s not a plan. It’s basically their framework for how they’re going to operate. What we have is continued uncertainty.”
Context: On the Bureau of Reclamation’s FEIS. Porter, a leading Arizona water-policy expert, anticipates a court challenge because the federal government is claiming authority beyond what the Lower Basin states will accept, while the Upper Basin faces no mandatory cuts.

Michael Orr
Owner, The Cromford Report
~July 31, 2026~
“My guess is that some golf courses could be phased out and more will have to reduce their water usage. Water — or the lack of it — and the diminishing snowcap is likely to be a long trend, not a short-term blip.”
Context: On what happens if Arizona shoulders the majority of the cuts. Orr, a housing-market analyst, noted agriculture would be hit first, and that there’s a limit to the population Arizona can sustain without a new water supply.

Danny Court
Principal and Senior Economist, Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
~July 31, 2026~
“That’s over a decade’s worth of housing demand not supplied. They place the economic losses from foregone housing development at $467 billion to $550 billion over the next 35 years.”
Context: Citing a February WestWater Research report on how CAP shortages could cut Arizona housing development by roughly 248,600 to 264,400 homes through 2060, plus large increases in water-supply costs that raise the price of building homes — creating economic risk as companies weigh where to invest.

Danny Seiden
President and CEO, Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry
~July 31, 2026~
“Arizona will do its part, as it always has, but we will not accept being treated as the system’s default shock absorber.”
Context: On the federal framework placing a disproportionate burden on Arizona. Seiden argued any sustainable path must recognize Arizona’s conservation record and require measurable contributions from every basin state.

Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly
U.S. Senators, Arizona (joint statement)
~July 31, 2026~
“The framework outlined in the Department of Interior’s Final Environmental Impact Statement could place an unfair burden on Arizona, including the possibility of reducing the Lower Basin’s Colorado River allocation by as much as 40 percent, without requiring comparable commitments from the Upper Basin. Arizona, California, and Nevada have already put forward a fair, practical proposal to stabilize Lake Mead and Lake Powell through shared conservation, and that proposal should serve as the foundation for the next set of Colorado River operating guidelines 2027 and 2028.”
Context: On the federal FEIS. The senators committed to working with all seven Basin states, tribes, and the federal government toward a durable agreement protecting Arizona’s water future.

Greg Stanton
U.S. Representative, Arizona
~July 31, 2026~
“Solving the Colorado River crisis for the long term demands a fair, workable, basin-wide solution where every state has skin in the game. What we got today is the opposite. Again and again, the federal government refuses to force the Upper Basin to put cuts on the table and entertains scenarios that would devastate Arizona. It is a total failure of leadership.”
Context: Stanton added that “Arizona is now America’s semiconductor capital,” with hundreds of chipmakers and suppliers in the Phoenix metro area “building the cutting-edge chips required for everything from consumer electronics to the defense systems flown from our military bases” — arguing the plan ignores Arizona’s economic and national-security importance.

Adelita Grijalva
U.S. Representative, Arizona
~July 31, 2026~
“While we are still awaiting the final operational plans for the next two years, any proposal that imposes the vast majority of cuts on Arizona is unreasonable and unacceptable — especially while Upper Basin states continue to hide behind an outdated legal framework that is disconnected from today’s hydrologic realities, allowing them to avoid making meaningful reductions to their own water use.”
Context: Grijalva pledged to keep fighting for Arizona’s CAP users, agricultural producers in Yuma County, and Arizona’s Tribal Nations, arguing responsibility for cuts must be shared fairly among all seven Basin states.

Warren Petersen
President of the Arizona Senate
~July 31, 2026~
“Arizona recognizes the serious condition of the Colorado River, and we are prepared to be part of a responsible solution. What we will not accept is a federal plan that protects some states while placing a devastating and disproportionate burden on Arizona. Our state has already conserved enormous amounts of water and made difficult sacrifices to protect this river.”
Context: On the federal FEIS. Petersen said the Senate stands ready to use every legal and legislative tool available if Arizona is forced to carry the burden alone.

T.J. Shope
Arizona Senate President Pro Tempore; Chairman, Senate Committee on Natural Resources, Energy & Water
~July 31, 2026~
“I’ve seen firsthand what draconian water cuts do to communities like mine in Pinal County, and these decisions have very real consequences. Farmers in my district lost their Colorado River water years ago, forcing them to fallow fields, rely more heavily on groundwater, and absorb tremendous financial losses. Arizona has already made difficult sacrifices while other states continue to avoid binding reductions.”
Context: On the federal FEIS. Shope argued the final operating guidelines must protect Arizona communities, credit the state for conservation already done, and ensure no state is required to sacrifice more than its fair share.

Kate Gallego
Mayor of Phoenix
~July 31, 2026~
“Solving the Colorado River crisis demands a fair, basin-wide solution in which every stakeholder is asked to sacrifice. Instead, the federal gov takes aim at Arizona and Lower Basin states even though we continue to do our part and conservation is a core part of our culture. Phoenix has spent decades planning for a moment like this, and is prepared to use less Colorado River water, but it is wrong to lay a disproportionate share of the burden on Arizona.”
Context: Posted on X in response to the federal FEIS.

Stephen Roe Lewis
Governor, Gila River Indian Community
~July 31, 2026~
“The most recent discussions among the Lower Basin States, tribes and the federal government have been encouraging, and I am optimistic that we may be on a path that will prove successful for the next two years. To be clear, if the final version of the Operating Guidelines for 2027-2028 does not meet our reasonable expectations of our trustee, we will stand ready to challenge this FEIS and the Operating Guidelines in every forum available to protect our Community’s interests in this difficult time.”
Context: The Gila River Indian Community emphasized the federal government’s trust obligation to offset reductions it imposes on tribal water rights, and called the guidelines an acceptable interim measure only if they include a balanced approach to sharing shortages.

Steve Montenegro
Speaker, Arizona House of Representatives
~July 31, 2026~
“Arizona must be clear-eyed, united, and firm in defense of our water future. The Colorado River is vital to our state, and Arizona has spent decades preparing for drought, conserving water, storing water underground, and building a stronger water system. Our job now is to stay prepared, continue protecting Arizona’s rights, and defend our economy while making sure decisions in Washington recognize the contributions our state makes to national security and the economy.”
Context: On the federal FEIS, urging Arizona leaders to remain united in the state’s position.

Rebecca Loudbear
Attorney General, Colorado River Indian Tribes
~August 4, 2026~
"Quite simply, this rushed process is an affront to our status as a sovereign nation."
Context: In a letter to the federal government objecting to the compressed timeline for reviewing the Final Environmental Impact Statement. CRIT holds rights to nearly a quarter of Arizona's Colorado River share — among the oldest, largest, and most legally protected in the state. Chairwoman Amelia Flores said the process "was not government-to-government consultation" and demanded true consultation going forward.

**PART TWO: THE SUPPRESSION**

What officials said when asked to tell the public the truth.

Darrell Grossen

Gilbert Resident

~February 17, 2026~

He had been “dismissed” by council members as “a keyboard warrior, irresponsible and spreader of misinformation” for speaking out against rate hikes.

Context: Gilbert approved a 25% water rate increase without waiting for a water meter audit — a resident who raised questions was publicly dismissed by elected officials.

Rep. Teresa Martinez

Republican, Casa Grande, Arizona

~February 18, 2026~

Warning that informing residents about water cuts might cause “mass hysteria.”

Context: Opposing a bill that would have required water providers to notify customers about potential rate increases if CAP supplies were cut.

Barry Aarons

Lobbyist, Arizona Municipal Water Users Association

(Representing Phoenix, Glendale, Peoria, Scottsdale, and six other cities)

~February 18, 2026~

“We don’t think we can provide the information. We don’t want to provide guesses.”

Context: Lobbying against the same transparency bill — on behalf of the cities whose residents would be most directly affected.

Dean Miller

Lobbyist, Arizona Water Company

~February 18, 2026~

The information about water cuts would be “highly speculative” and would “scare the heck” out of customers.

Context: Water utility lobbying against informing residents of potential supply disruptions.

Committee Chairwoman Gail Griffin

Republican, Hereford, Arizona

~February 18, 2026~

“We are not out of water. We have solutions.”

No solutions were specified. The bill died in committee 2-6.

Rep. Alexander Kolodin

Republican, Scottsdale, Arizona

~February 18, 2026~

“Why are they so scared of the public finding out what happens if we lose these negotiations? The people out there in our communities, they’re sleepwalking into oblivion right now.”

Context: After his transparency bill was killed in committee — Kolodin was the one Republican willing to say out loud what his colleagues refused to acknowledge.

Solange Whitehead Scottsdale City Council Member

~June 7, 2026~

“This is the first time, I think, in the history of Scottsdale where the budget is actually eliminating funds we need to keep water flowing, keep water secure, keep water safe, and to keep it affordable.”

Context: A sitting council member confirming on 12News that the city’s budget is cutting water security funding during the most precarious water moment in city history.

Stan Barnes

Lobbyist, Water Asset Management (New York hedge fund)

~June 15, 2026~

“You can demagogue the New York hedge fund because it feels good. But that’s not what this is about.”

Context: Lobbying Arizona lawmakers to allow his client — a New York hedge fund that owns large tracts of Arizona farmland — to pump the McMullan Valley aquifer down to 1,200 feet and sell the water to Phoenix and Tucson. The same aquifer whose 600-foot wells are already going dry in nearby Wenden.

Sebastian Rucci
Developer, Imperial Valley Computer Manufacturing
~February 2026~
"It does not touch a single drop of the Colorado River."
Context: Public promise posted on company website in February 2026 about the proposed Imperial Valley AI data center. By June 2026 his company had filed a lawsuit seeking 260 million gallons of Colorado River water per year — after recycled water negotiations with local cities collapsed.

**PART THREE: THE LEGAL COLLAPSE**

What happened when the courts got involved.

Jenny Winkler

Attorney representing Chandler, Municipal Water Association, SRP

~February 20, 2026~

“If ADWR were to ignore the data and continue handing out water certificates that don’t account for real groundwater availability, those certificates would be completely worthless to the homeowners who rely on them.”

Context: Arguing against the Homebuilders Association lawsuit to block enforcement of groundwater protections — warning that a builder victory would make water supply certificates legally meaningless.

Kathleen Ferris

Senior Research Fellow, ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy

Architect of Arizona’s 1980 Groundwater Management Act

~April 23, 2026~

“If this decision is allowed to stand, it may be the death knell of the assured water supply requirement. This decision would really put a dent — a big dent — like breaking the dam of the assured water supply requirement.”

Context: Responding to a Maricopa County judge’s ruling striking down ADWR’s groundwater restrictions on homebuilding — the law Ferris herself helped write forty-six years earlier.

Judge Scott Minder Maricopa County Superior Court

~May 16, 2026~

“A complete stay may also serve to lengthen this lawsuit.”

Context: Rejecting Fondomonte’s request to pause AG Mayes’ lawsuit while ADWR implements a two-year groundwater management process. The judge ruled the case must move forward — acknowledging that state regulation alone cannot stop the pumping or address past damage to neighboring wells and land subsidence. Only a court order can do that. The pumping continues while the case proceeds.

Timothy Sandefur Vice President for Legal Affairs, Goldwater Institute

~June 9, 2026~

“We’re delighted that the court has struck down the bureaucracy’s newfangled restriction on home construction — a rule that reduced the availability of homes and raised housing costs in one of the nation’s fastest-growing housing markets.”

Context: Celebrating Judge Blaney’s second ruling in two months striking down ADWR groundwater protections — with no mention of the documented groundwater shortfall.

Sarah Porter Director, ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy

~June 9, 2026~

“Groundwater has to be managed as a non-renewable resource, a non-renewing water supply.”

Context: Responding to Judge Blaney’s second ruling in two months striking down ADWR groundwater protections for the Phoenix AMA.

**PART FOUR: THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT**

The administration now tasked with managing the “water” crisis.

President Donald Trump

~February 13, 2026~

Called climate change a “hoax” and a “con job.”

Described the EPA’s endangerment finding as “one of the greatest scams in history.”

When asked about the science behind climate policy: “Don’t worry about it, because it has nothing to do with public health. It was all a scam, a giant scam.”

Context: These statements were made the same week seven-state Colorado River negotiations collapsed at the federal deadline. This is the administration now responsible for managing the river’s future.

**PART FIVE: THE SCIENCE**

What researchers said when they ran out of careful language.

World Weather Attribution Study

~March 20, 2026~

“Events as warm as in March 2026 would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.”

“That warming, from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, added between 4.7 to 7.2 degrees F to the temperatures being felt.”

Andrew Weaver

Climate Scientist, University of Victoria

~March 20, 2026~

“This is what climate change looks like in real time: extremes pushing beyond the bounds we once thought possible. What used to be unprecedented events are now recurring features of a warming world.”

Clair Barnes

Imperial College London, World Weather Attribution

~March 20, 2026~

“What we can very confidently say is that human-caused warming has increased the temperatures that we’re seeing as a result of this heat dome, and it’s going to be pushing those temperatures from what would have been very uncomfortable into potentially dangerous.”

AP Survey of Scientists and Meteorologists

~March 20, 2026~

“More than a dozen scientists, meteorologists and disaster experts queried by The Associated Press put the March heat wave in a kind of ultra-extreme classification with such events as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, the 2022 Pakistan floods and killer hurricanes Helene, Harvey and Sandy.”

NOAA Climate Extremes Index

~March 20 2026~

“The area of the U.S. being hit by extreme weather in the past five years has doubled from 20 years ago.”

“The country is breaking 77% more hot weather records now than in the 1970s.”

Grant Foster Co-author, Geophysical Research Letters study Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

~March 2026~

“We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015.”

Context: First study to clear the 95% confidence threshold confirming global warming acceleration — 0.35°C per decade since 2015 versus 0.2°C per decade from 1970-2015, roughly 75% faster. At that pace the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold arrives around 2030.

**PART SIX: THE GROUND TRUTH**

What it looks like when a system runs out of time.

Torey Lovullo

Manager, Arizona Diamondbacks

~March 2026~

“It’s a very pivotal time in spring training. We’ve got to be aware of these athletes and hydrating when they’re out there. We might shorten the days or get them on and off the field very quickly.”

“If we’ve got to play a game in 100-degree heat, we’re going to do it. That’s our job.”

Context: A major league baseball manager adjusting spring training schedules in March — a month that used to be reliably temperate in the Arizona desert.

Mayor Curtis Stacy

Kearny, Arizona | Population 2,000 | 85 miles from Phoenix

~April 2026~

“We WILL run out of water on or about July 15, 2026. When that happens, there will be no water available to any of us for any purpose.”

“I’m not going to kill anybody. I don’t know how else to put it. It’s a life and death problem.”

“We’ve been through shortages before, but never anything quite like this. What happens there is uncharted territory. I don’t really know. There’s been no precedent for it.”

~May 1, 2026~(Updated)

“We’ve reduced our water usage in the town as a whole by 32 percent in the last 14 days, and that’s really remarkable. That’s a seven-day rolling average, by the way.”

“What we’re doing right now is trying to buy time.”

“We still have a zero day that we’re facing. It’s just further down the road.”

Context: Kearny’s water allotment was slashed 87% — from 600 to 77 acre-feet. Residents told to shower together, wear clothes multiple times, flush once or twice a day. A 32% conservation effort bought them one additional month. Water is visible flowing in the Gila River on the edge of town. They legally cannot touch it.

Wayne Cude

Kearny Resident

~May 2026~

“All together, I’ve got — I got it yesterday — 440 to 450 gallons. Lot of water, but you’d be surprised how fast it goes.”

Context: Hauling water from outside town to meet his family’s basic needs during Kearny’s water emergency.

Kevin Moran

Environmental Defense Fund

~May 8, 2026~

“The Colorado River is tanking. We are at the 11th hour in needing to have strong and collaborative solutions to protect the health of the river.”

Context: Responding to the Lower Basin temporary plan announcement.

SPECIAL NOTE: Unnamed Emergency Manager

Corpus Christi, Texas | Population 500,000+

~April 25, 2026~

“We have no precedent to follow. There’s no manual, there’s no video.”

Context: Corpus Christi projected to become the first American city to completely run out of water. Reservoirs near empty after five years of drought.

Crystalyne Curley Speaker, Navajo Nation Council

~June 11, 2026~

“Just to find a reliable water source in other communities. So, longer drives — they have already been doing longer drives to get to that watering point. Now that it’s dry, they had to take an additional 30 or 50 miles again just to get water.”

Context: Speaking to AZFamily after the Navajo Nation declared a drought state of emergency on June 10, 2026. One in three residents of the 27,000-square-mile Nation has no running water at home. Now wells are drying up — for the people who had them. Arizona just recorded its hottest and driest January-through-March in recorded history.

Tony Valdez

Marina Owner, Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Wyoming

~June 11, 2026~

“It was dropping a foot a day. I couldn’t keep up.”

“You will never feed the thirst. You can’t.”

Context: Flaming Gorge being drained up to 1 million acre-feet to prop up Lake Powell — dropping 35 feet by April 2027. Valdez has seen the water fall 7 feet since April, losing a third of his marina’s customers. Federal cuts plan still coming “later this summer.”

Rob McDermott
Owner, Morenga Palms RV Park, Wenden, Arizona
~June 15, 2026~
“They’ll just pump this place until it dries up and blows away.”

Context: McDermott’s 600-foot wells went dry. He paid $120,000 to drill a new well to 800 feet. Cannot afford to do it again. A pending Arizona bill would allow private entities to pump the McMullan Valley aquifer down to 1,200 feet and sell water to Phoenix and Tucson.

DaVona Saiter
Owner, Mas Paz Desert Spirit gift shop, Wenden, Arizona
~June 15, 2026~

“That’s absolutely terrifying to think you can have this natural body — I call it nature’s perfection — that we have altered it to where it is no longer useful.”
Context: The floors of her 125-year-old building are slanting from ground subsidence caused by aquifer depletion. Gaps of several inches between floor and wall. A large crack on the front patio.

Gary Saiter
Chairman, Wenden Domestic Water Improvement District
~June 15, 2026~
“I don’t think most of the people in the legislature really care about rural Arizona.”
Context: Fighting a bill that would allow a New York hedge fund to pump the McMullan Valley aquifer and sell water to Phoenix and Tucson — while the water table in his community has already dropped 18 feet in two years.

Karin Eugenio
Board Chair, Imperial Irrigation District
~May 2026~
"Our water was never meant for special interests or unchecked development. It belongs to the people of this Valley."
Context: Publicly opposing IVCM's water demand as the Imperial Irrigation District board rejected the company's water application — prompting the lawsuit seeking 260 million gallons of Colorado River water annually.

Katie Fritzsche
Doney Park Resident, Flagstaff, Arizona
~June 27, 2026~
"It's unbelievable. And it's like, who do we get mad at? Everything will be impacted. We won't be able to do anything. I don't want to say that I feel scared, but I do feel out of control. I feel like I am not able to handle my own household."
Context: Speaking to AZFamily as APS activated its second-ever Public Safety Power Shutoff — cutting power to roughly 8,000 customers in high fire-risk areas around Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon on June 27, 2026. APS launched its shutoff program in 2024 but has now used it twice in the same year — both times in 2026.

Marilyn Tewa
Hopi Tribal Council Member, Village of Mishongnovi — in her 80s
~June 29, 2026~

“We’re still living like we’re, you know, when I was born, because we still wash our hands in a container, you know, in the morning, wash our face in a wash bowls. And spill it outside, you know, and it hasn’t, nothing really has changed for us.”
Context: An elected tribal official with no sink in her kitchen and no bathroom in her home — hauling untreated water 10 miles round trip in 5-gallon buckets from a well built for livestock. One in three homes in northeastern Arizona tribal communities has no running water. In 2026.

Crystalyne Curley
Speaker, Navajo Nation Council
~June 29, 2026~
“It is a violation to our human right, having access to clean water, having access to having, making sure that our children, future generation have a permanent homeland. And for me, that’s what it stands for.”
Context: On the $5 billion Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement — blocked by four Upper Basin states while one in three homes on tribal land lacks running water.

Frank Strong
Engineering and Water Resource Division Manager, Cheyenne Board of Public Utilities
~July 2, 2026~
“The concern we have with our reuse system is we put it into aerosol, where we spray it onto the grass, and that increases the potential for health issues.”
Context: Explaining why Cheyenne shut down its entire reclaimed-water irrigation system for months after a Meta data center contractor discharged cooling-system flush water carrying a rare metal-resistant bacterium into the city sewer. The reclaimed water sprays city parks and golf courses. The bacterium can pose risks to immunocompromised and elderly people.

Pete Laybourn
City Councilman, Cheyenne, Wyoming
~July 2, 2026~
“It’s a very, very unpleasant surprise. I have a lot yet to learn. It definitely complicates matters.”
Context: Reacting to the disclosure that Meta’s contractor was the source of the contamination — a fact city officials withheld from the public for over four months while the reuse system sat offline.

**PART SEVEN: THE WILDFIRE**

What the state’s own fire manager said — before the budget was cut.

John Truett

Arizona State Fire Manager

~April 22, 2026~

“We’re very short-staffed when it comes to a statewide fire department, per se. We could use a few more folks and a few more permanent positions.”

“Even if we have an average April, May, we’re still going to be an above average prediction of wildfire season.”

Context: Truett’s warning came days before Arizona Republicans proposed cutting the Department of Forestry and Fire Management budget by roughly $2 million — to fund tax cuts.

**PART EIGHT: THE FINANCIAL REALITY**

What it costs to live here now.

Rebecca Hamel

Water Manager, Town of Gilbert

~February 2026~

“We don’t want to do rate increases. We are doing them because we have to.”

Context: Defending Gilbert’s third consecutive year of water rate increases — 48% in 2024, 25% in 2025, 25% in 2026 — funding eight new groundwater wells and the largest single clean water investment in Arizona history as Colorado River cuts loom.

Kathryn Sorensen

ASU Water Policy Researcher

~April 28, 2026~

“A lot of the solutions to the Colorado River shortage are going to entail higher costs.”

Context: Phoenix City Council briefed that the city expects to reach “Drought Stage 2 — Water Warning” status by end of 2026 — their own designation for an insufficient supply situation.

Edward Van Ness

President, Sun City Homeowners Association

~February 18, 2026~

“Do I pay my bills, or do I buy food?”

Context: Speaking at an Arizona Corporation Commission public comment session on APS’s proposed 14% rate increase — representing retirees on fixed incomes already struggling with cost of living increases.

Attorney General Kris Mayes

Arizona Attorney General

~March 3, 2026~

“APS is asking Arizona families to foot the bill for shareholder profits that far exceed what any reasonable investor requires. This is just corporate greed run amok.”

Context: Filing expert testimony showing APS’s 14% rate increase request could be reduced to 3% while maintaining reliable service — estimating an unnecessary $524 million annual wealth transfer from families to shareholders.

Anne Carlton

APS Manager of Regulatory Compliance

~May 18, 2026~

“If you’re going to buy a cup of coffee, and it changes from $2 to $8 in a day, it can really freak people out. Whereas, if that changes in a smaller amount over time, it’s something that we feel like people could probably budget for better.”

Context: Defending APS’s request for annual rate increases — describing the strategy of incremental increases to avoid customer “freakout” over larger jumps.

Maria Bears

Sun City West Resident

~May 18, 2026~

“That is crazy talk. I can’t believe they are even asking for it.”

Context: Responding to APS’s request to raise rates every single year going forward.

Ana Compean

Buckeye Resident

~May 18, 2026~

“We’re going to be trying to stretch our dollars when we don’t have any more dollars to

stretch.”

Context: APS customer on a tight family budget responding to proposed 14% rate increase with annual increases to follow.

Tom Buschatzke

Arizona Water Director / Chief Colorado River Negotiator

~April 2026~

“I think you lose about 80% of hydro-generation when you get to that elevation at that point at Lake Mead. You’ve got to go on the grid to find it. Hydropower is one of the cheaper sources of power, so you can expect that impact to occur.”

Context: Confirming to 12News that dropping Lake Mead levels will force Arizona utilities off cheap hydropower and onto the more expensive open grid — directly increasing electricity costs for Arizona ratepayers at the same moment APS is requesting 14% rate increases plus annual formula increases.

Dane Bradfield General Manager, Lincoln County Power District, Nevada

~May 2026~

“That means a lot of watching and recalibrating.”

Context: Describing how grid managers are responding to Hoover Dam’s rapidly

declining hydropower capacity as Lake Mead approaches the 1,035-foot threshold. Lincoln County Power District is one of Hoover Dam’s original power customers — serving 5,000 people across 10,000 square miles of rural Nevada. “Watching and recalibrating” is how a grid manager describes managing a critical power system with no margin for error.

Soleste Lupu
Co-owner, Dancing In The Streets Arizona dance studio, Tucson
~June 17, 2026~

“We do not recover our costs from the tuition from low-income families. We have no way to pass that on. We’re not a restaurant. They’ll just drop out.”
Context: Speaking at an AG Kris Mayes town hall — a nonprofit ballet studio for low-income students unable to absorb Tucson Electric Power’s proposed 13% rate increase, tied to powering a 286-megawatt data center under construction.

Kris Mayes
Arizona Attorney General
~June 17, 2026~
“I’m very worried about the future for consumers, given the massive onslaught of data centers into states like Arizona. It is really kind of uncontrolled right now.”
Context: Speaking at a Tucson town hall — presenting evidence that TEP’s 13% rate increase request could be reduced to 4% while maintaining reliable service. The increase is tied to supplying electricity to a 286-megawatt data center.

**PART NINE: THE NATIONAL SECURITY PIVOT**

When water becomes a matter of state survival, the argument shifts from conservation to defense.

Governor Katie Hobbs

Official Statement — Office of the Arizona Governor

~May 1, 2026~

“Arizona is taking action to preserve the Colorado River and secure our state’s water future. With this Lower Basin Proposal, we are protecting Arizonans from devastating cuts being forced on us by the federal government, and ensuring our families, farmers, and businesses have the water they need to thrive. Together, Arizona, California, and Nevada are embracing a collaborative approach that preserves the Colorado River and ensures that states are deciding our own future, not the federal government.”

“No other state produces more advanced AI chips, critical minerals, guided missile systems, or fresh produce per drop of Colorado River water than Arizona. We feed America, we protect America, and we are building the future of the American economy. This administration has an opportunity to make our country stronger and more prosperous by accepting this proposal and ensuring Arizona communities will have the Colorado River water we need for the future, while we continue to develop the necessary long-term solutions to solve this most pressing issue.”

Context: Official statement released the same day the Lower Basin states submitted their emergency proposal to the Bureau of Reclamation. Hobbs is making Arizona’s national security case directly to the Trump administration — framing water as a prerequisite for missiles, chips, minerals, and food supply simultaneously.

Max Wilson

Phoenix Water Resources Management Advisor

~April 28, 2026~

“Every single house in this Valley is too big to fail. I think anything that undermines the confidence that the nation has in sustainable lives here in the Valley would be negative for all of us who live here.”

Context: Explaining why Phoenix is helping Cave Creek find backup water — not out of generosity, but to protect real estate confidence across the entire metro.

Yeh Chun-hsien

Head, Taiwan National Development Council

~May 11, 2026~

“TSMC told me it was surprised by the smooth trial run of the first fab, which has left the company optimistic about the project’s outlook — but the company still faces several challenges, including water shortages. Arizona’s dry climate remains a concern.”

Context: Reporting directly after meeting with TSMC leadership — confirming water scarcity as one of four key operational challenges in TSMC’s Arizona buildout, the same day TSMC’s board approved another $20 billion investment in the state. The company the federal government is spending billions to protect is now officially on record acknowledging the same water crisis this report has documented.

Governor Katie Hobbs — joined by Senate President Warren Petersen (R), House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R), Senate Minority Leader Priya Sundareshan (D), and House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos (D) Letter to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum

~May 2026~

“Colorado River reliability in Arizona is a matter of national security. However, based on the trajectory of Post-2026 negotiations over the last two years, it seems that these foundations of growth are at risk due to the refusal of the Upper Basin States to offer meaningful, verifiable conservation commitments.”

Context: A rare bipartisan letter signed by both Republican and Democratic legislative leaders urging federal intervention to end the Colorado River negotiating stalemate. Both parties — who agree on almost nothing — agree Arizona’s water situation is a national security emergency.

Brenda Burman General Manager, Central Arizona Project / Former Commissioner, Bureau of Reclamation

~Q2 2026~

“We have saved over 5 million acre-feet just on our own, more than any other state, and that has gone into Lake Mead. We have stepped up, we have done it ourselves, and we are willing to do more.”

Context: NEUTRAL. CAP’s general manager — and former federal Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner — defending Arizona’s conservation record while acknowledging more cuts are coming. Arizona has indeed contributed more to Lake Mead conservation than any other state. The 5 million acre-feet figure is verified.

**PART TEN: THE OPTIMISTS**

Nick Serrano Board Chair, San Diego County Water Authority

~June 3, 2026~

“Because the challenge we face is regional and across state lines, the solutions must be that, too.”

Context: Speaking at the signing of the Carlsbad Desalination Plant Memorandum of Understanding — a paper water transfer agreement between San Diego, Arizona and Nevada intended to allow California to leave its Colorado River allocation in Lake Mead while using desalinated ocean water locally. The Carlsbad plant produces roughly 50,000 acre-feet per year against a Colorado River system deficit of 2.6 million acre-feet annually — less than 2% of the annual shortfall.

Adán Ortega Jr.
Board Chair, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California
~July 14, 2026~
“Those decades of forward-thinking investments allow us to step forward and help stabilize the Colorado River when it needs us most.”
Context: Noting MWD and its ratepayers have invested $1.7 billion in conservation, water recycling, and groundwater recovery since 1990, producing over 8.8 million acre-feet. The investments are what make it possible for Southern California to leave water in Lake Mead now.

Martin Harvier
President, Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community
~July 30, 2026~
"Water is life. Helping in putting this system in, I know we're providing life for those that come after us."
Context: At the ribbon-cutting for the Gilbert Road Pipeline, a joint project with SRP giving seven Valley cities direct access to over 1 million acre-feet of water banked underground at Granite Reef since 1994.

THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE QUOTES

Water Rate Increases Already in Effect:

Gilbert: 125% cumulative increase over three years (2024–2026)

Scottsdale: Proposed 4.5% hike — 70% dependent on Colorado River

Phoenix: Rate increases “on the horizon”

Federal Cut Proposals on the Table:

33–69% cuts to Arizona’s Colorado River allocation

~Update May 15, 2026~

The Trump administration confirmed it is developing a 10 year federal framework allowing mandatory cuts of up to 3 million acre-feet annually — up to 40% of the combined allotments of Arizona, California and Nevada. Arizona’s water director Tom Buschatzke called it “a sobering possibility for Arizona.” He also warned CAP could go “completely dry”

Worst-case scenario: CAP supply cut by up to 97%

Tom Buschatzke warned CAP could go “completely dry”

City Dependencies on CAP Water:

Scottsdale: 70%

Gilbert: 41%

Phoenix: 30–40%

Economic Projection:

CAP worst-case scenario: $2.7 trillion loss to Arizona’s economy

WHAT THIS DOCUMENT IS

This is not opinion. This is not analysis. This is a dated, sourced record of what officials, scientists, attorneys, water managers, and residents said — in their own words — as Phoenix’s future came into focus.

Some knew what was coming and said so. Some knew and tried to hide it. Some were simply living it. All of it is real. All of it is documented. All of it happened.

The record speaks for itself.

David Lawrence

Phoenix, Arizona | 26-year resident | Colorado native